So says Flanders congressman Hermes Sanctorum of the Green party, one of the speakers during The Solar Future Belgium ’12 conference, held in Brussels on March 28th. ,,At first, solar energy was stimulated, nowadays it is slandered. A few years ago solar power was all people could talk about, now the sun can’t do anything right,” Sanctorum says. ,,Nevertheless I see a positive future ahead. I think the solar sector will survive this. There are a few hiccups to overcome, but they will be solved, especially because ‘grid parity’ is nearing. The question is how we will get through the transition.”
Although residential subsidies are decreasing and tax reductions for companies are abolished, prices of solar panels decrease because of enormous production figures in China. Thus solar power gets cheaper and cheaper and is able to compete with power form the grid. According to Sanctorum, investments in solar energy are still profitable.
The problem in Flanders is that all consumers of electricity have to pay for the green certificates for solar panels. ,,That’s an unjust situation. Families saw the invoice for their electricity rise enormously. Some can’t pay the bill any more. That’s why the support for solar energy went down.”
The congressman sees a solution in a better way to divide subsidy costs. Companies should pay their share, just as the government should and producers of nuclear energy. ,,Nuclear power plants are written-off long ago and make high profits. Our first focus should be to collect money there and invest it in renewable energy,” Sanctorum says.
In his view, Belgium companies should compete with the Chinese on the fields of innovation, know how and the search for better technologies. In doing so, they should be supported by the Belgium government, for instance with subsidies.

During The Solar Future Belgium ’12 conference top speakers, experts and CEO’s of major companies will focus on the best grow strategies for 2012 and 2013 and issues like: international developments and expert opinions on growth and business models of the future. The conference is organised by Solarplaza, which globally sets up high-level solar conferences for the photovoltaic solar energy (PV) industry.

Flanders (86% of the year's growth Belgium)

In contrast to fears that the PV market in Belgium would be negatively impacted by a series of green certificate value digressions in Flanders, the year saw the installation of a large number of PV modules. Volumes recorded by VREG rose fast, with a preliminary record of 163,4 MW for installations larger than 10 kW in June, just prior to the July 1 digression (certificate value becoming € 300/MWh, installations >250 kW € 240). VREG reported a near record number of 6,410 requests for small installations that were almost immediately approved in that month.

Registered residential capacity grew considerably, in particular in the second half of 2011. On average, over 7.700 new installations (max. 10 kW) per month were recorded during that period, with an average new volume of over 39 MW/month. The share of this market segment increased in total volume from 45% (2010) to 64% (2011).

A preliminary 2011 record volume of 592,3 MW new capacity was registered by VREG in their last update, including 76.508 new entries, with 208 over 250 kW. That is 76% over the adjusted volume for 2009 (454,2 MW). Market segmentation was 379,0 MW up to 10 kW (system average app. 5 kW/installation), 65,0 MW entries between 10 and 250 kW (11%), and 146,3 MW for the largest installations of above 250 kW (25%). For the latter two categories, 660 and 208 new entries were recorded in 2011 (entries may be segments of larger projects). The biggest new projects recorded were the 4,1 MW “solar tunnel” above the high-speed train track northeast of Antwerp; a 4,5 MW/36 hectare “solar parking” at Hödlmayr’s in Tongeren; and The Benelux’s largest project, a 6,2 MW free-field installation at Nyrstar in Overpelt. ING Equipment Lease’s portfolio grew rapidly in 2011, now accumulating 66 MW, with 166  projects (mostly large) sized 20-3.239 kW. The Antwerp region east of the River Schelde has also seen some new large projects. Katoen Natie’s Loghidden City terminal (Schelde West Bank) remained the biggest single-site installation in The Benelux (27,9 MW).

VREG updates in 2011 revealed a 170 MW “backlog” volume increase for 2010 since February 2011. It is therefore expected that much more capacity will be added to last year’s volume, possibly reaching 750 MW in 2011, or more.

Wallonia (<14%)

CWaPE reported strong growth in Wallonia, doubling from 83,3 MW, cumulated from 21.233 installations of max. 10 kW, originally reported at the end of 2010 to 181,6 MW and 40.181 installations at the end of 2011 (growth without corrections: 97,8 MW). At the end of January 2012, 90 installations larger than 10 kW were recorded, with a capacity of 6,5 MW (share 3,3% of total accumulation; average 72 kW/installation), which is increase of only 4,4 MW (47 installations) since the end of 2010. Two new installations were implemented in Ghlin and Strépy-Bracquegnies, with a maximum size of 250 kW. Actual calendar year growth volume is not yet known. Apere estimated a year growth volume of 94 MW and 186 MW accumulation based on the status as at end September that year.

The 600 MW growth for Flanders and 880 MW for Belgium mentioned by PV Vlaanderen’s CEO in a Solarplaza publication on the 20th of February do not match actual official data from the authorities. The first figure will most probably increase strongly; the latter does not match the current available statistics, in particular for Wallonia.

Brussels (<0,2%)

The last available data for Brussels (September 2011) shows a meagre growth of only 819 kW (169 new installations) and an accumulated volume of 6,7 MW (2.041 installations) as compared to data shown in the year 2010 report (accumulation 5,9 MW, 1.872 installations). Apere estimated a yearly growth of only 1,1 MW, accumulating volume to 7,0 MW in 2011. Two new larger projects will change that only a slightly: 150 kWp on Plastoria’s roof (realised end of 2011), and a planned 1,6 MW project on the TIR centre.

Belgium

According to present data, Belgium had accumulated 1.669 MW end of 2011, with shares larger than 88% for Flanders, over 11% for Wallonia, and 0,4% for Brussels – with more volume yet to be added. Taking a conservative ratio (DC:AC = 1,1:1), 1.836 MWp PV generator capacity could already have accumulated. Thus, an average 167 Wp PV module could have been installed for each of Belgium’s 11 million inhabitants (EU27 average 2010: 59 Wp).

In 2010, 595 GWh of solar electricity was generated in Flanders, while a preliminary 1,2 TWh has been registered for 2011. During the freezing mid-winter conditions, as at January 27, 2012, between 4 and 8 percent of Belgium's electricity consumption was covered by photovoltaic conversion of sunlight during the day.

Although green certificate value for PV projects larger than 250 kW has now dwindled to 90 Euros in Flanders, and large projects seem to have come to a standstill, the residential and commercial sector still look promising, with low module prices. How much volume that will generate in the crisis year 2012 is hard to predict.

*MW = MWac (inverter capacity, hence not referring to module capacity)
** Status in this article based on 1 February and 6 February 2012 reports by VREG, and January 2012 reports by CWaPE, Apere

Sources: Apere, BRUGEL, CWaPE, EurObserv’ER, PV-Vlaanderen, VREG

Figures (see below)

Caption Fig. 1

Capacity additions per market segment (Flanders) and region in Belgium per year, in MWac. Status as at end of February 2012. Inset: Cumulative volumes per region. Note that volumes may increase with new reports, in particular for Flanders in 2011.

Caption Fig. 2

Segmentation of the large >10 kWac PV market in Flanders. Number of entries (green columns, left Y axis) and accumulated capacity (MWac) per segment (red/yellow columns, right Y axis). Status as at February 1, 2012 (VREG).

Source: http://www.solarplaza.com/article/belgiums-2011-pv-market-beats-previous-record-year

Read full article

BRUSSELS – Although subsidies and tax benefits are being cut, solar panels in Belgium become cheaper every day. 2011 renounced all pessimistic predictions and set a new record with 880 Megawatt new installed PV modules. Experts predict the same growth in 2012. Especially in the industrial market, where companies still enjoy tax reductions.

Early 2011, experts thought  the solar market would collapse due to decreasing subsidies. ,,But prices decreased also in a way that consumers paid less for their panels in the end. In retrospect, all panic was for nothing. In Flanders 600 new Megawatt was installed and in the entire country 880 Megawatt, making 2011 the best year ever,” CEO Alex Polfliet of Zero Emission Solutions (ZES) states. The author of several books on renewable energy served ten years as an advisor for the state secretary of energy, before starting his own successful company.

According to Polfliet, in 2012 history will repeat itself. Even though the market is slow now, caused by negative media reports of tax benefits on solar panels being ended. Polfliet: ,,Newspapers wrote that the payback period was extended with five years, but that’s not true. Prices dropped again so it takes people seven years to earn back their money on panels that last for twenty years.”
After Germany, Belgium comes second in the world, when the installed solar power per capita is compared, ZES calculated. Polfliet believes that in 2015 or 2016 electricity from your roof will be cheaper than from the grid. After that point subsidies are no longer needed.

Polfliet is one of the speakers during the Solar Future conference , held on March 28th in Area 42 in Brussels. CEO’s, professionals and experts will speak there about investment opportunities, innovation and all kinds of solar projects.

SolarAccess has a lot of experience with large roof projects. The company installs en exploits solar panels globally. Thought consumers saw their tax benefits disappear, companies can still deduct 13,5 percent of their investments. ,,Especially in Wallonia we see a lot of business opportunities for solar panels on large buildings,” country manager Tom Pollyn says.
He thinks consumers should not step back now. ,,All this reserve is unnecessary.  In Flanders we were a bit spoiled in the last few years, when the payback period was four to five years. Now its six to seven years.”
Solarplaza organises the second Solar Future conference due to last year’s success. ,,Now is the time to show Belgium it still pays to invest in solar energy,” says Paul van der Linden of Solarplaza.

Accumulated photovoltaic capacity in Belgium could be 740 MW* end of 2010, with an 88% share for Flanders. Growth rate has deteriorated, but the market for smaller installations remains promising.

Growth in Belgium’s largest market, Flanders, regulated by VREG, has cooled down in 2010. There was a big rush at the end of 2009 (11.000 installation requests in December), but it is not yet clear to which “realization” year these installations will be allocated. According to official VREG publications, there are some striking differences in the data published by branch organization BelPV, as shown in Fig. 1.
With 245,1 MW growth** (2009) and the accumulation of 334,3 (2009) and 654,4 MW (2010), preliminary VREG-registered growth in 2010 would be 320,1 MW. However, BelPV claims 412,7 MW accumulation in 2009 and 165,0 MW in 2010. These huge differences most probably result from diverging interpretations of what should be considered a “grid-connected PV system.” Adding together the 2009-2010 growth numbers, the difference is only 2,2%: VREG 565,2 MW, BelPV 577,7 MW. BelPV estimated that for additional PV-capacity in 2009, households in Flanders would have paid 0,13 Eurocents/kWh extra on their average electricity price (€ 0,17/kWh).

Registration of the larger installations such as the 40 MW Katoen Natie project can take a long time. However, 64% of applications in this category would be handled within 2 months by VREG. Smaller systems of up to 10 kW apparently are registered on a more regular basis, see Fig. 3. In Flanders, large-scale power plants >1 MW accounted for 77 MW of accumulated capacity (fig.2) - almost 29% of the volume of the >10 kW category, and 9% of the total capacity.

Fig. 3 shows newly VREG-registered capacities on an average daily basis per period, with trend lines. >10 kW installations (green columns) are unevenly distributed, with high capacities in May and July 2010. Growth collapsed in January 2011, and it is expected that with new tariff cuts for solar electricity this market segment might face further troubles. However, new registrations for the small category (blue columns) remain at a healthy, relatively constant level (roughly 300-600 kW/day), apart from the small “end-of-year 2010 rush” (816 kW/day).

In December 2010, just prior to a 2 Eurocent/kWh cut in feed-in tariffs, 6.000 new requests would have been filed with VREG. This used to be 2.500 per month earlier in the year. In Flanders, approximately 60% of the accumulated capacity of 670 MW reached end of Jan. 2011 falls within the <=10 kW category. Approximately 106 W/inhabitant has been realized (in nominal DC power that could be 118 Wp/inhabitant, as compared to 192 Wp/inhabitant in Germany at the end of November).

Photo 1. Not uncommon in Belgium: PV modules on old building in Gent.
Copyright Peter Segaar 2011

Flanders is now confronted with a legislation proposal, which was very slightly changed following a storm of protest by the solar industry in November 2010, that will further bring down the value of green certificates for PV from today’s € 0,33/kWh in 3-month steps each of 2-4 Eurocent/kWh. >1 MW installations with less than 50% self-consumption will be hit hardest, reaching € 0,09/kWh in 2012. BelPV claims, however, that 200 MW of new PV capacity could be added in 2011.

Wallonia has performed less well than previously, and on a much smaller scale. CWaPE reported 37,3 MW capacity in new installations in 2009**, and the Brussels magazine Hernieuws estimated 80 MW end-of-year capacity for 2010, which gives a growth of 33 MW for that year. In view of the abolishment of regional incentives apart from a complicated green certificate regime, it is a fair but relatively minor market. 95% of installations are residential, 2010 resulting in an accumulation of 24 W/inhabitant.

Regulator Brugel reported in June 2010 that the capital, Brussels, had added 3,4 MW of capacity in 2009** (accumulation: 4,1 MW). Hernieuws suggested accumulations of 4,2 MW (2009) and 5,1 MW for 2010. Hence, a meagre growth of only 0,9 MW in 2010, possibly due to the abolishment of a regional incentive without compensation in the green certificate legislation (as in the case of Wallonia). Mostly small installations have been realized, with a few 50-100 kW projects reported (2009-2010). Only 5,1 W/inhabitant would have accumulated at the end of 2010.

As shown in Fig. 4, the end of 2010 saw an accumulated volume of approximately 740 MW in Belgium, enabling the country to establish its 5th position in the EU ranks, before France. 88% of capacity is in Flanders. While Hernieuws and VREG data totalled up to 385 MW for Belgium in 2009, EurObserv’ER recently counted 363 MWp DC capacity. Based on the original AC data, 2010 could have seen growth of 354 MW. With a population of 10,8 million, the country as a whole would have reached a level of 68 W of installed solar capacity per inhabitant (75 Wp DC).

*MW = MWac (inverter capacity)
**Data EurObserv’ER Report Renewables in Europe 2009 (DC capacity): Growth in 2009 251 MWp Flanders, 38 MWp Wallonia, and 3,1 MWp in Brussels.
 
Sources: Apere, BelPV, BRUGEL, CWaPE, Energeia, EurObserv’ER, Express, Hernieuws, Nieuwsblad, ODE, VREG